C-Pu's Bowl Previews Part 3 - Meineke and Emerald Bowl Previews

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Meineke Car Care Bowl – UNC vs Pitt

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC – December 26^th – 4:30PM ET – ESPN

Line Report: Very little action on the side for this game, but, sitting at 2.5 leaves the door open for big line swings. Don’t be surprised if a different team is favoured by kickoff.

Brian Blessing Weather Report: No precipitation in the forecast, temperature sitting around 0.

UNC Defence vs Pitt Offence

If UNC wins it will be on the strength of their defence, if Pitt wins it will be on the strength of their offence.

Simply put, North Carolina have a scary defence. North Carolina rank in the top 25 in sacks(25), tackles for loss(3), points against(13), turnovers gained(13) , total yards against(6), rushing yards against(6), defensive 3^rd down conversion percentage(3) and 1^st downs allowed defensively(9). I could go on, but I think you get the point.

Pitt are a very good overall team, recently, they had 13 players named to All-Big East teams, 9 offence & 4 defence.

The Panthers run a ‘pro-style’ offence, they run the ball, their QB manages the game, and they get great protection in both the running and passing games.

Defence Wins Championships Bowl Games?

There is little doubt the Pittsburgh defence will stop the UNC offence, because few teams have failed to stopped the UNC offence. The Tar Heels rank outside the top 80 in pass yards, rush yards, total yards and points per game. The staple of their offence is the downhill running game, they don’t pass effectively, they won’t pick up yards in bunches, but they will pound the ball and pick up 1^st downs.

The good thing about running a pro-style offence, is the consistency. At the collegiate level, consistency wins games. The problem with the pro-style offence, is that it’s relatively easy to game plan for. If the defence can win the one-on-one matchups, Pittsburgh will struggle to do anything offensively.

In their 3 losses, Pitt gained an average of 331 yards, 68 fewer than their season average.

Where My Money Will Be

North Carolina are on the cusp of something very special. Butch Davis has done an incredible job in recruiting football players to a basketball school. Despite having a totally irrelevant offence, the Tar Heels have beaten both ranked teams they have played this season(#13 Va. Tech, #14 Miami(Fl.)) and although they have lost some ‘winnable’ games, they have shown the talent to compete with the best in the country.

Conversely Pitt has only played 1 ranked team this season, in the de facto Big East Championship against Cincinnati. UCONN and Rutgers are the only teams that I would put in the same continent as North Carolina, considering defensive talent. In other words, UNC will be the best defence that Pitt has seen in some time.

Bill Stull has shown an ability to lose control of a game, and with Butch Davis’ defensive schemes and talent, the likelihood of this scenario increases. If Pitt do lose faith in their QB, they will then be relying on a freshman tailback, playing against the best defensive unit he has seen in his career.

In other words, I feel as though UNC’s aggressive defence will give Pitt a world of trouble. UNC’s offence will find themselves in good field position and will do their best to manage the clock and let their defence win the game.

Play: UNC +2.5

Emerald Bowl – Boston College vs USC

AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA – December 26^th - 8:00PM ET – ESPN

Line Report: USC opened at -8.5, since jumped between 9 to 8. Don’t expect this one to close at this number. If the money comes in on BC, you’ll see a 7, if it comes in on USC, you’ll see a 10. The total was installed at 45.5, currently sitting at 44.

Brain Blessing Weather Report: Small chance of rain, and weather that would be more familiar for BC than USC.

Mismatch Bowl?

Nobody would argue that this was a rebuilding year for the BC program. Ironically, after 15 weeks of football, the same can be said for USC, in hindsight.

BC entered the season with 3 potential starting QBs, to make things worse, 1^st year HC Frank Spaziani, entered the season with the position still up for grabs. By Week 5, initial starter Justin Tuggle was relegated to the bench and option #2 freshman David Shinskie was named the starter.

USC entered the season with very similar issues at QB, but by week 1, Pete Carroll decided to put the future of his program in the hands of blue chip freshman Matt Barkley.

From that point forward, the expectations for these teams went in exact opposite directions. People expected very little out of BC, but got much more than expected. People expected a lot out of USC, but found themselves disappointed on a regular basis.

What’s in a Name?

Despite losing the majority of their defence over the past 2 seasons, nobody expected a drop off from the Trojans, hell, they’re USC, possibly one of the deepest programs in the country. In hindsight, losing the likes of Sedrick Ellis, Clay Matthews, Brian Cushing, Rey Maualuga, Fili Moala and Keith Rivers, in the span of two years, is going to set your program back a bit.

Again, nobody expected this in the preseason, based on USC’s track record, but if you consider what USC has lost in recent years, this season’s record shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Boston College also have a storied football program, not in the realm of USC, but there are often big expectations for the Eagles. However, this season, the expectations were at an all-time low. That said, after several surprising wins, people began to realize that, despite having a freshman QB, 1^st year HC, and sophomore running back, Boston College had a talented football team.

Where My Money Will Be

Offensively, the Trojans have relied on Junior and possible 1^st round draft pick, Joe McKnight. However, in recent weeks, McKnight hasn’t resembled the player that everyone expects him to be. He did the majority of his damage in the first half of the season, as the games became more important and the defences became more competitive, McKnight began to regress. In his place, Allen Bradford has been getting into the second level with regularity.

Whether it be ignorance or a sense of loyalty to McKnight, Bradford hasn’t received the touches in which his play has demanded. As everyone knows, politics in USC are unlike that of any program in the FBS, with pro contracts and draft status on the line, coaching decision could be clouded.

In other words, if I found out that Allen Bradford would be afforded more touches in the bowl game, it would completely alter the way I would handicap this game.

That said, on this stage, there’s no doubt McKnight will receive at least half of the touches, in which case, the Trojans will struggle to get into the 2^nd level on the ground and will find themselves in a lot of 3^rd and long situations.

Montel Harris accounts for nearly 50% of BC’s offensive touches, further, BC runs the ball on 60% of their plays.

More importantly for me, USC and Boston College rank 97^th and 116^th in the country in 3^rd down conversion, respectively. What’s more, on their 80 combined red zone attempts, the teams have combined for 20 field goals. In other words, 25% of their red zone attempts have ended with 3 points on the board.

Play: USC/Boston College UNDER 44

IF Joe McKnight isn’t playing, which looks likely, at this point and time, I would happily take USC at -7. The current line is -7.5, which is still an attractive price for the Trojans, I will make a small play on USC.

If the line goes down to -7, USC and the points would be in the top 5 for my largest wagers of the bowl season.

So again, IF McKnight is OUT and the line drops to 7 or better:

Play: USC -7 and disregard playing USC/BC UNDER